高盛经济团队预计，2025 年中国 GDP 增速将从 2024 年的 4.9%放缓至 4.5%。这一预期主要反映了房地产去杠杆的持续影响，以及中国与发达市场贸易摩擦升级带来的出口下滑压力。然而，政府已推出了强有力的政策托底举措，这些政策不仅能够有效缓解房地产和外部环境带来的挑战，还为期待已久的经济增长模式转型提供了助力，使得经济逐步从贸易和投资驱动向内需和消费驱动转变。
Goldman Sachs' economic team expects China's GDP growth rate to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025. This expectation mainly reflects the ongoing impact of deleveraging in the real estate sector and the pressure from escalating trade frictions between China and developed markets, which have led to a decline in exports. However, the government has introduced strong policy support measures that not only effectively alleviate the challenges posed by the real estate sector and external environment but also assist in the long-awaited transformation of the economic growth model, gradually shifting the economy from being driven by trade and investment to being driven by domestic demand and consumption.
高盛 2025 年对中国的展望概览. 图片来源: Goldman Sachs
Overview of Goldman Sachs' outlook on China for 2025. Image source: Goldman Sachs
企业盈利和中国资金将发挥主导作用 高盛预计，明年 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数将分别上涨 15%和 13%。这一增长预测源于高盛对每股盈利增长 7%-10%和估值温和提升的预期。 2024 年的政策转向降低了市场左尾风险，并促使估值重新被上调。到了 2025 年，企业盈利增长和股市进一步走高将更多依赖政策的落实力度。高盛认为，政策引发的资金流动调整或将在 2025 年进一步加速，企业、境内个人投资者、南向资金以及政府类投资机构可能会显著增加股市持仓。
Corporate profits and Chinese capital will play a leading role. Goldman Sachs expects that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 15% and 13% respectively next year. This growth forecast is based on Goldman Sachs' expectations of a 7%-10% increase in earnings per share and a moderate improvement in valuations. The policy shift in 2024 has reduced the left-tail risks in the market and prompted a reassessment of valuations. By 2025, the growth of corporate profits and further increases in the stock market will rely more on the implementation of policies. Goldman Sachs believes that the adjustments in capital flows triggered by policies may further accelerate in 2025, with corporations, domestic individual investors, southbound capital, and government-related investment institutions likely to significantly increase their holdings in the stock market.
投资组合策略应紧跟国内政策导向 高盛继续建议高配 A 股和港股的投资组合，同时对目标进行了调整，以反映关税因素的影响。在短期内，高盛更倾向于 A 股市场，因为与港股相比， A 股在政策放松和个人投资资金流入方面具有更大的敏感性和利好。从行业板块配置角度，广义消费领域被认为是值得优先关注的重点。医疗保健和券商板块被调整为高配，其资金来源可能是传统周期性股票的部分轮动。高盛还特别提到，政府消费、新兴市场出口企业、人民币贬值受益股、新技术/基础设施相关标的以及股东回报策略是当前重要的投资主题。
The portfolio strategy should closely follow domestic policy directions. Goldman Sachs continues to recommend an overweight position in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while adjusting targets to reflect the impact of tariff factors. In the short term, Goldman Sachs prefers the A-share market, as it is more sensitive and favorable to policy easing and inflows of individual investment funds compared to Hong Kong stocks. From the perspective of sector allocation, the broad consumer sector is considered a key area to prioritize. The healthcare and brokerage sectors have been adjusted to an overweight position, with funding sources likely coming from a partial rotation out of traditional cyclical stocks. Goldman Sachs also specifically mentioned that government consumption, emerging market export companies, stocks benefiting from the depreciation of the yuan, new technology/infrastructure-related targets, and shareholder return strategies are currently important investment themes.
经济增长趋势与政策措施的互动 高盛预测，到 2030 年，中国经济增速将稳定在 3.5%。未来几年，中国年均经济复合增速预计为 3.9%。人口减少、债务问题和去杠杆化等因素被认为是限制长期趋势增速的主要挑战。此外， 2025 年的 CPI 和 PPI 通胀率预计分别为 0.8%和 0%，这一低水平的通胀主要反映了需求不足、供应过剩以及全球大宗商品价格稳定的多重影响。
The interaction between economic growth trends and policy measures: Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, China's economic growth rate will stabilize at 3.5%. In the coming years, the average annual compound growth rate of China's economy is expected to be 3.9%. Factors such as population decline, debt issues, and deleveraging are considered the main challenges limiting the long-term growth trend. Additionally, the CPI and PPI inflation rates for 2025 are expected to be 0.8% and 0% respectively, with this low level of inflation primarily reflecting the multiple impacts of insufficient demand, oversupply, and stable global commodity prices.
房地产行业预计将继续拖累 GDP 增长，但政府计划投入人民币 8 万亿元资金用于房地产去库存，这或许能推动一二线城市房价逐步企稳。尽管出口增长在疫情后对中国 GDP 的贡献显著，但高盛预测，以美元计的名义出口增速可能从 2024 年的 6.6%下降至 2025 年的-0.9%。这一下滑主要归因于发达市场对中国商品加征更高关税的可能性。然而，高盛指出，国内宽松政策和人民币贬值将部分抵消这些关税带来的影响。
The real estate industry is expected to continue dragging down GDP growth, but the government plans to invest 8 trillion yuan to reduce inventory in the real estate sector, which may help stabilize housing prices in first- and second-tier cities gradually. Although export growth has significantly contributed to China's GDP post-pandemic, Goldman Sachs predicts that the nominal export growth rate in US dollars may decline from 6.6% in 2024 to -0.9% in 2025. This decline is mainly attributed to the potential for developed markets to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. However, Goldman Sachs points out that domestic easing policies and the depreciation of the yuan will partially offset the impact of these tariffs.
政策展望：关键在于落实 高盛预计， 2025 年的货币政策将继续放松，包括降准降息、人民币适度贬值以及其他央行操作。同时，财政政策赤字支出比例预计将从 2024 年的 11.2%提高至 13%。高盛认为，这些财政资源将被用于房地产去库存、地方政府债务置换、银行资本重组以及社会消费刺激计划等关键领域。在监管层面，高盛的民企监管示意性指标表明，监管收紧周期已经结束，未来可能会为一些民营经济主导行业带来积极推动。
Policy Outlook: The Key Lies in Implementation Goldman Sachs expects that monetary policy will continue to ease in 2025, including reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, a moderate depreciation of the yuan, and other central bank operations. At the same time, the fiscal policy deficit expenditure ratio is expected to increase from 11.2% in 2024 to 13%. Goldman Sachs believes that these fiscal resources will be used in key areas such as real estate destocking, local government debt swaps, bank capital restructuring, and social consumption stimulus programs. On the regulatory front, Goldman Sachs' indicative indicators for private enterprise regulation suggest that the tightening cycle has ended, which may bring positive momentum to some industries dominated by the private economy in the future.
股市估值与资金流动 高盛预计，到 2025 年底， MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数的目标市盈率将分别达到 11 倍和 14.3 倍。这一估值目标是基于宏观市盈率模型、贴现现金流估值框架以及风险溢价调整的计算结果得出的。当前，中国股市的风险溢价仍然较高，表明投资者对中国长期增长前景仍然存在不确定性。高盛指出，通过稳健的政策落实和宏观数据改善，这种不确定性可能会逐步缓解。
Stock Market Valuation and Capital Flow: Goldman Sachs expects that by the end of 2025, the target price-to-earnings ratios for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will reach 11 times and 14.3 times, respectively. This valuation target is based on the results of a macro price-to-earnings ratio model, a discounted cash flow valuation framework, and adjustments for risk premiums. Currently, the risk premium in the Chinese stock market remains relatively high, indicating that investors still have uncertainties about China's long-term growth prospects. Goldman Sachs points out that this uncertainty may gradually ease through the implementation of robust policies and improvements in macroeconomic data.
板块配置与投资主题 高配
Sector allocation and investment themes - overweight.
媒体/娱乐：它可以被视为中国、尤其是年轻一代的高韧性消费服务的关键代表性标的。游戏版号审批的强劲势头（ 2024 年平均每月 120 款）再次印证了高盛的观点，即监管收紧周期的最糟糕时期已经过去。高盛分析师预计，得益于变现能力和成本控制改善，该行业 2025 年收入增速或为中个位数且利润率将进一步回升，从而有望支撑利润增速达到 10-20%区间低端。它也体现了“走出去”的主题，主要游戏发行商约 30%的收入来自海外。
Media/Entertainment: It can be seen as a key representative of high-resilience consumer services in China, especially among the younger generation. The strong momentum in game license approvals (averaging 120 titles per month in 2024) further confirms Goldman Sachs' view that the worst period of regulatory tightening is over. Goldman Sachs analysts expect that, thanks to improved monetization capabilities and cost control, the industry's revenue growth in 2025 could be in the mid-single digits, with profit margins expected to further recover, thereby supporting profit growth to reach the lower end of the 10-20% range. It also reflects the theme of "going global," with about 30% of major game publishers' revenue coming from overseas.
（线上）零售：随着新进入者缩减扩张规模，大型企业的竞争格局可能会改善。在这个已多少呈饱和状态的市场中，电子商务运营企业的盈利增速有望达到高个位数，得益于其成本优化和补贴减少，而且低于周期中期的市盈率以及 0.6 倍的 PEG 倍数似乎表明市场定价并未充分体现它们运用的 AI 潜力。回购收益率相对较高（过去 12 个月为 4%），为估值提供了额外的缓冲。 保险：受今年基数较高的影响， 2025 年代理渠道的保费增速可能放缓，但银保渠道增速可能会随着利润率提高而上升。 A 股大涨推动险企 2024 年三季度投资收益显著增长，抵消了债券收益率下降带来的盈利压力。估值水平（市净率和市值/内含价值）仍处于区间低端，而且高盛认为险企股是国内股市贝塔进一步提高以及通胀预期潜在企稳的有效上行对冲工具。
(Online) Retail: As new entrants scale back their expansion, the competitive landscape for large enterprises may improve. In this market, which is somewhat saturated, the profit growth rate for e-commerce operators is expected to reach high single digits, benefiting from cost optimization and reduced subsidies. Additionally, the lower mid-cycle price-to-earnings ratio and a PEG ratio of 0.6 suggest that the market pricing does not fully reflect the AI potential they are utilizing. The relatively high buyback yield (4% over the past 12 months) provides additional support for valuations. Insurance: Due to a high base this year, the premium growth rate for agency channels may slow down in 2025, but growth in bank insurance channels may rise as profit margins improve. The significant increase in investment income for insurance companies in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a surge in A-shares, offsets the profit pressure from declining bond yields. Valuation levels (price-to-book ratio and market value/intrinsic value) remain at the lower end of the range, and Goldman Sachs believes that insurance stocks are an effective upward hedge against further increases in beta in the domestic stock market and potential stabilization of inflation expectations.
医疗保健（从“标配”上调至“高配”）：该行业在 2024 年的表现明显跑输大盘，年初至今下跌了 14%。估值接近周期低点，投资者仓位较低。反腐影响可能开始消退，有望推动 2025 年行业需求和利润恢复正常化，实现约 15%的增长。在广义医疗领域，高盛的分析师相对更青睐生物科技，而非制药、设备和服务。中美关系紧张可能继续推动合同定制研发生产机构（ CDMO）的波动性，而地方财政状况改善应该有利于设备制造商。
Healthcare (upgraded from "standard" to "high-end"): The industry is significantly underperforming the market in 2024, having dropped 14% year-to-date. Valuations are close to cyclical lows, and investor positions are relatively low. The impact of anti-corruption measures may begin to fade, which is expected to drive a normalization of industry demand and profits in 2025, achieving about 15% growth. In the broader healthcare sector, Goldman Sachs analysts prefer biotechnology over pharmaceuticals, equipment, and services. Ongoing tensions in U.S.-China relations may continue to drive volatility in contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs), while improvements in local fiscal conditions should benefit equipment manufacturers.
券商（从“标配”上调至“高配”）：自 2024 年三季度以来，随着 A 股市场表现和成交量跃升，券商行业强劲反弹。高盛的分析师预计，明年 A 股日均成交量将同比增长 15%，国内并购和海外融资的资本市场活动将更加活跃。在竞争激烈、盈利能力承压的券商板块，行业整合可能是超额收益的关键来源。
Brokerage firms (upgraded from "market perform" to "outperform"): Since the third quarter of 2024, the brokerage industry has seen a strong rebound with the performance and trading volume of the A-share market surging. Goldman Sachs analysts expect that the average daily trading volume of A-shares will grow by 15% year-on-year next year, and capital market activities related to domestic mergers and acquisitions and overseas financing will become more active. In the highly competitive brokerage sector, where profitability is under pressure, industry consolidation may be a key source of excess returns.
标配
消费者服务（从高配下调至标配）：以食品配送、旅游和教育为首的服务型经济从基本面上领先于消费品子领域，而且这一表现或将延续至 2025 年，得益于监管政策更加明朗、定价更趋良性以及潜在市场规模的增长潜力。高盛仍看好非商品类消费题材，但考虑到该板块今年迄今已上涨 64%、估值处于周期中期水平以及预计 2025 年每股盈利增速较 2024 年放缓，高盛认为该板块产生回报的关键在于优选个股。
Consumer services (downgraded from high-end to standard): The service-oriented economy, led by food delivery, tourism, and education, fundamentally outperforms the consumer goods sub-sector, and this performance may continue until 2025, thanks to clearer regulatory policies, healthier pricing, and the growth potential of the market size. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about non-commodity consumer themes, but considering that this sector has risen 64% so far this year, valuations are at mid-cycle levels, and earnings per share growth is expected to slow in 2025 compared to 2024, Goldman Sachs believes that the key to generating returns in this sector lies in selective stock picking.
科技硬件：该板块内部趋势分化，高盛预计，与人工智能相关的产品可能表现领先，但与智能手机、个人电脑和电动汽车供应链相关的产品只会实现个位数的低增长。关税是该板块面临的一个关键风险，尽管企业正在积极多元化生产基地，以更好地应对摩擦成本的潜在上升。应关注特定的产品周期和供应链，尤其是苹果供应商和人工智能服务器，以寻求超额收益。
Technology Hardware: This sector shows internal trend differentiation. Goldman Sachs expects that products related to artificial intelligence may perform better, while those related to the smartphone, personal computer, and electric vehicle supply chains will only achieve low single-digit growth. Tariffs pose a key risk to this sector, although companies are actively diversifying their production bases to better cope with the potential rise in friction costs. Attention should be paid to specific product cycles and supply chains, especially Apple suppliers and AI servers, in order to seek excess returns.
食品饮料/必需消费品（从高配下调至标配）：在持续的通胀下行压力下，产品定价环境充满挑战，该板块在股市中一直表现落后。鉴于估值较历史均值低 1 个标准差，高盛认为风险/回报颇具吸引力，尤其是在政府直接支出和财政刺激措施能够切实推动温和再通胀周期的情况下。就子板块而言，高盛的分析师看好乳制品和饮料/啤酒，相对看淡高端白酒和调味品。
Food and Beverage/Essential Consumer Goods (downgraded from high-end to standard): Under ongoing downward inflationary pressure, the product pricing environment is challenging, and this sector has consistently underperformed in the stock market. Given that valuations are one standard deviation below historical averages, Goldman Sachs finds the risk/reward profile quite attractive, especially if government direct spending and fiscal stimulus can effectively drive a moderate re-inflation cycle. In terms of sub-sectors, Goldman Sachs analysts are optimistic about dairy products and beverages/beer, while they are relatively bearish on high-end liquor and condiments.
资本品/工业品（科技类，从低配上调至标配）：从国内来看，房地产行业的拖累继续给机械制造商和建材企业带来需求抑制。然而，如果地方政府财政放松推动基建投资势头增强，以及设备以旧换新成效显现，则其前景有望改善。从外部来看，关税风险迫近和发达市场需求低迷给需求前景蒙上了阴影。高盛认为该板块存在强劲的超额收益机会，那些受益于进口替代、行业整合、新基建资本支出、人工智能和特定产品供应链的企业可能会跑赢大盘。
Capital goods/industrial goods (technology category, upgraded from low configuration to standard configuration): Domestically, the continued drag from the real estate sector is suppressing demand for machinery manufacturers and building materials companies. However, if local government fiscal easing boosts infrastructure investment momentum and the effects of equipment upgrades become apparent, the outlook may improve. Externally, the approaching tariff risks and sluggish demand in developed markets cast a shadow over the demand outlook. Goldman Sachs believes there are strong opportunities for excess returns in this sector, with companies benefiting from import substitution, industry consolidation, new infrastructure capital expenditures, artificial intelligence, and specific product supply chains likely to outperform the market.
房地产：高盛的分析师预测，由于一手房市场销量萎缩 4%以及平均售价下跌 5%， 2025 年全国房屋销售额可能会同比下降 9%。强有力的去库存政策支持和房贷利率下调是一二线城市在 2025 年晚些时候迎来期待已久的二手房房价企稳的必要条件，但土地销售、建设和竣工可能还需要几年时间才能走稳。二手房供应可能是一个风险，非住宅房地产的前景仍然非常严峻。对于房地产行业敞口，高盛仍然更青睐国有开发商、地产经纪和物业管理公司。
Real Estate: Goldman Sachs analysts predict that due to a 4% decline in sales of new homes and a 5% drop in average prices, national housing sales may decrease by 9% year-on-year in 2025. Strong inventory reduction policies and a reduction in mortgage rates are necessary conditions for first- and second-tier cities to see the long-awaited stabilization of second-hand housing prices later in 2025, but land sales, construction, and completions may take several more years to stabilize. The supply of second-hand homes could pose a risk, and the outlook for non-residential real estate remains very bleak. Regarding exposure to the real estate sector, Goldman Sachs still prefers state-owned developers, real estate brokers, and property management companies.
半导体：离岸市场以光伏面板制造商为主，这些企业的供应增长可能在政府指导下开始放缓。半导体供应链企业主要集中在 A 股市场，在有利的政府政策和个人投资者乐观情绪的推动下，这些企业的 2024 年表现相对较好（+17 %）。本地化/进口替代推动的资本支出和研发投资可能会继续拖累现金流和盈利能力。因此，拥有强大政府支持、研发能力和技术优势的行业龙头应会跑赢大盘。
Semiconductors: The offshore market is primarily dominated by photovoltaic panel manufacturers, and the supply growth of these companies may begin to slow down under government guidance. Semiconductor supply chain companies are mainly concentrated in the A-share market, and driven by favorable government policies and optimistic sentiment from individual investors, these companies are expected to perform relatively well in 2024 (+17%). Capital expenditures and R&D investments driven by localization/import substitution may continue to weigh on cash flow and profitability. Therefore, industry leaders with strong government support, R&D capabilities, and technological advantages are likely to outperform the market.
低配
银行（从标配下调至低配）：资本金补充可能推动 2025 年贷款增长小幅，预计大型银行表现领先。在降息（包括房贷利率下调）周期中，净息差可能会进一步压缩，但债务置换计划可能会缓解资产质量（不良贷款）压力。“不可能三角”依然带来制约，银行的拨备政策和资本充足率将使股息可持续性倍受关注。高盛相对看好更多涉及地方政府债务的大型银行，而非与房地产市场密切相关的小型银行。
Banks (downgraded from standard to low configuration): Capital replenishment may slightly boost loan growth in 2025, with expectations that large banks will perform better. During the interest rate cut cycle (including reductions in mortgage rates), net interest margins may further compress, but debt replacement plans could alleviate asset quality (non-performing loan) pressures. The "impossible trinity" continues to pose constraints, and banks' provisioning policies and capital adequacy ratios will draw significant attention regarding the sustainability of dividends. Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about larger banks more involved with local government debt, rather than smaller banks closely tied to the real estate market.
汽车：如果持续实施大规模的政策补贴，则 2025 年国内汽车销量或将小幅同比增长 1.4%至 2,200 万辆，其中新能源汽车将成为主要驱动力，近几个月来其市场渗透率已超过 50%。由于资本支出更为自律而且定价更趋理性，电动汽车主机厂的利润率已经企稳，但越来越多的燃油车车企目前处于亏损状态。尽管发达市场提高了关税，但 2025 年中国电动汽车应会继续扩大全球市场份额。高盛仍建议在板块内优选股票，高盛青睐那些拥有强大产品线、规模效应以及全球/新兴市场扩张和生产战略明确的行业龙头。
Automobiles: If large-scale policy subsidies continue to be implemented, domestic car sales in 2025 may see a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4% to 22 million units, with new energy vehicles becoming the main driving force, as their market penetration has exceeded 50% in recent months. Due to more disciplined capital expenditures and more rational pricing, the profit margins of electric vehicle manufacturers have stabilized, but an increasing number of fuel vehicle companies are currently operating at a loss. Despite developed markets raising tariffs, China's electric vehicles are expected to continue expanding their global market share in 2025. Goldman Sachs still recommends selecting stocks within the sector, favoring industry leaders with strong product lines, economies of scale, and clear strategies for global/emerging market expansion and production.
能源：该板块在 2024 年大部分时间里都在横盘整理，高盛预计这一趋势将持续下去。高盛预测， 2025 年布伦特原油价格将在每桶 70-85 美元之间波动（目前为 72 美元），在这种背景下，高盛的分析师更看好上游企业，因为它们对油价的贝塔系数相对较高，而炼油企业可能继续面临需求和利润率压力。“三桶油”估值接近区间中点，隐含油价相比布伦特原油现货价格偏低 10-20 美元/桶。强劲的（自由）现金流可能给它们的股息和股票回购政策带来小幅上行风险。
Energy: This sector has been consolidating for most of 2024, and Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue. Goldman predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel in 2025 (currently at $72). In this context, Goldman’s analysts are more optimistic about upstream companies, as they have a relatively high beta coefficient to oil prices, while refining companies may continue to face pressure on demand and margins. The valuation of the "Big Three" oil companies is close to the midpoint of the range, with implied oil prices being $10-20 per barrel lower than the spot price of Brent crude. Strong (free) cash flow may pose a slight upside risk to their dividend and stock buyback policies.
材料：与房地产和传统基础设施相关的金属（如铁矿石）的需求前景依然黯淡，而主要面向电动汽车和可再生能源的原材料领域依然面临产能过剩的问题。在铜和水泥领域存在特异性投资机会，前者是因为绿色资本支出持续而且电网相关投资可能加速，后者则得益于供给侧改革和行业整合。
The demand outlook for metals related to real estate and traditional infrastructure, such as iron ore, remains bleak, while the raw materials sector focused on electric vehicles and renewable energy continues to face issues of overcapacity. There are specific investment opportunities in the copper and cement sectors; the former is due to sustained green capital expenditures and the potential acceleration of grid-related investments, while the latter benefits from supply-side reforms and industry consolidation.
风险评估：需关注的主要挑战 关税风险
Risk Assessment: Key Challenges to Focus On - Tariff Risk
关税结果显然存在宽泛的可能性，任何明显偏离高盛经济学家基本预测的情景都会对中国股市的公允价值产生重大影响。关税规模、内容、时间以及中国的政策反应带来了更多变数，也令局势更加难以分析。高盛基于这一概念进行了情景分析，高盛的乐观情景和悲观情景所对应的公允价值存在 37 个百分点的差异。唯一可以确定的是，这将是未来几个月推动市场波动的首要主题，投资者将密切关注关税发展，以动态调整他们的市场观点。 政策落实不力
The results of the tariffs clearly have a wide range of possibilities, and any significant deviation from the basic predictions of Goldman Sachs economists would have a substantial impact on the fair value of the Chinese stock market. The scale, content, timing of the tariffs, and China's policy responses introduce more variables, making the situation even more difficult to analyze. Goldman Sachs conducted scenario analysis based on this concept, revealing a 37 percentage point difference in fair value between their optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The only certainty is that this will be the primary theme driving market volatility in the coming months, and investors will closely monitor tariff developments to dynamically adjust their market views. The implementation of policies has been ineffective.
除了关税之外，考虑到市场已经调高了政策预期，缺乏后续行动或政策令人失望可能是高盛对中国股市建设性观点的最大风险，从盈利和估值角度来说都是如此。虽然高盛认同政策在方向上确实发生了转向，但这种承诺并未像许多投资者所希望的那样得到政策行动的充分支持。高盛认为，如果缺乏强力有效的政策来解决结构性和周期性阻力，投资者可能仍认为中国股票是“短线交投标的”或者将重演日本经历。
Aside from tariffs, considering that the market has already raised policy expectations, the lack of follow-up actions or disappointing policies may pose the biggest risk to Goldman Sachs' constructive view on the Chinese stock market, both from an earnings and valuation perspective. While Goldman Sachs acknowledges that there has indeed been a directional shift in policy, this commitment has not been sufficiently supported by policy actions as many investors had hoped. Goldman Sachs believes that without strong and effective policies to address structural and cyclical headwinds, investors may still view Chinese stocks as "short-term trading targets" or fear a repeat of Japan's experience.
通货紧缩
不同于许多在新冠疫情后经历高通胀的国家，中国自“重新放开”之后一直在与通缩压力做斗争，自 2023 年以来，整体 CPI 通胀均值为 0.2%，而 PPI 通胀已连续 25 个月处于负值区间。宏观（领先）指标和微观动态（如产能）表明，总体价格水平在可预见的未来将保持低迷，与高盛经济学家的预测一致。理论上讲，通胀下行往往会阻碍收入增长，压缩盈利能力，而且通常不利于基于名义价值的风险资产估值，这在一定程度上解释了为什么高盛的 2025 年每股盈利增速预测低于市场普遍预测。强有力的财政刺激和资产价格上涨对于打破通胀下行螺旋并启动再通胀周期至关重要。
Unlike many countries that experienced high inflation after the COVID-19 pandemic, China has been struggling with deflationary pressures since its "reopening." Since 2023, the overall CPI inflation average has been 0.2%, while PPI inflation has been in negative territory for 25 consecutive months. Macroeconomic (leading) indicators and micro dynamics (such as production capacity) suggest that the overall price level will remain sluggish in the foreseeable future, consistent with predictions from Goldman Sachs economists. Theoretically, declining inflation often hinders income growth, compresses profitability, and is generally unfavorable for the valuation of risk assets based on nominal values, which partly explains why Goldman Sachs' forecast for earnings per share growth in 2025 is lower than the market's general expectations. Strong fiscal stimulus and rising asset prices are crucial for breaking the downward spiral of inflation and initiating a re-inflation cycle.
友情提示：
Friendly reminder:
如需获取完整的高盛投研报告，欢迎点击蓝色“开始对接”按钮。美财帮工作人员会为您安排与美国顶级投资顾问团队的对接，全程提供中文服务，助您深入了解全球投资洞察，抓住市场机遇！
To obtain the complete Goldman Sachs research report, please click the blue "Start Connection" button. Our staff at Meicai Bang will arrange for you to connect with a top investment advisory team in the U.S., providing full support in Chinese to help you gain in-depth insights into global investments and seize market opportunities!
